One of the most curious decisions made last summer was by the Anaheim Ducks, who opted against qualifying restricted free agent Mathieu Perreault. By virtue of this move, Mathieu Perreault became an unrestricted free agent, and Anaheim opted to build down the middle with two centres acquired via trade – Ryan Kesler from Vancouver, and Nate Thompson from Tampa Bay. The move was puzzling for a variety of reasons. We see underrated players slip into free agency all of the time, but that’s largely the result of a player suffering from poor on-ice shooting percentage and/or on-ice save percentage variance. Perreault – by just the simple counting numbers that hockey operations guys love – had 43 points in 69 games. As a per-sixty rate, his scoring rate (2.45) ranked only behind Ryan Getzlaf (3.13) and Corey Perry (3.04) on the team. Perhaps there was a fear about a qualifying offer leading to arbitration and an award unfavourable to the team, but there’s still an opportunity cost for every decision. In this case, the opportunity cost was acquiring Nate Thompson ($1.6-million annual cap hit) to fill Perreault’s void. Though he comes cheaply, Thompson hasn’t been very productive, and the team had to fork over a fourth and seventh-round draft pick. One can debate the merits of Anaheim’s decision-making process here, but I think what happened after Anaheim is even more fascinating. In typical ‘Day One of Free Agency’ fashion, a bunch of hockey general managers chased precisely the wrong things. Just minutes before Perreault inked a three-year, $9-million contract in Winnipeg, Florida gave fellow centre Dave Bolland (fresh off of a major Achilles injury) $27.5-million over five years. They expectedly cited “character, hard work, and leadership“ as arguments in support. The analytics community countered, calling the contract “insane“. Bolland, of course, has one goal through twenty games, with the second-worst Corsi% (48.4%) of Panthers forwards. There is $18.5MM in committed dollars separating Bolland and Perreault, and just $2.6MM in committed money separating Perreault and Thompson. As a fun little exercise, let’s run through some of our counting and advanced numbers for the three centres, and see which team is getting the best bang for their buck. First, point-scoring over the years at even-strength: It’s funny – points historically drive contract price, which makes Perreault’s $3-million annual deal with Winnipeg a bargain from just our first graph. Anyway, there’s really no comparison between the three from a scoring perspective – Perreault has been far and away the most productive on the offensive end, and it’s not close. How is Mathieu Perreault able to sustain such prolific scoring rates year after year? From an individual standpoint, Perreault drives some of his team’s scoring by constantly shooting from favorable distance. Perreault is sneaky-great at positioning himself into danger areas – Bolland and Thompson, not so much. These hexagonal bin plots for each of the three players illustrate the above, where red indicates a higher (better) frequency of shot generation, and blue indicates a lower (worse) frequency of shot generation: When Dave Bolland and Nate Thompson have been on the ice, their teams experience extremely fewer shots from the danger areas in front of the net. When Mathieu Perreault has been on the ice – well, his teams live in that danger area. This is as compelling a chart as any from an offensive aspect. What if we get into some of our favorite underlying numbers? Which of the three players is the best at controlling play from a territorial aspect? For this, we can look at RelativeCorsi%, which gives us the difference in Corsi% a team possesses with a player on the ice versus off of the ice. Generally, better players post positive RelativeCorsi% year after year, and weaker players post negative RelativeCorsi% in the same fashion. Mathieu Perreault’s teams are consistently better from a possession aspect with him on the ice. The opposite is true for both Dave Bolland and Nate Thompson. Dave Bolland’s only positive season came in an injury-shortened season in Toronto, and based on his surrounding numbers, we should probably be skeptical that the production was meaningful. Nate Thompson has just been a straight negative player. What if we get into pure defensive metrics, like Corsi Against per 60? This should at least show us what players are better at suppressing shot attempts, and at the very least, underline potential defensive contributions that may not appear in some of the other graphs. I’ll go one step further, too, and adjust for zone starts, which will avoid penalizing players (like Bolland) who start frequently in the defensive zone. Looking at this, you are left considering two schools of thought. Either Mathieu Perreault is an underrated defensive player off of the puck, or is he an underrated offensive player with the puck – so much so, that by extension, he spends significantly less time in the defensive zone. This is simply a raw comparison of a player’s ability to suppress shots over thousands of minutes without the creep of zone start effect. Even from a defensive aspect, Perreault out-shines both Thompson and Bolland. And, ultimately, what we care about is goals. The reason why so much time is spent talking about the merits of Corsi% is that we know it is predictive of future goal-scoring, be it at the individual or team-level. We know Perreault is a better offensive player. We think he may even be a better defensive player, either by being so great offensively or underrated defensively. How does it look from a goal-scoring perspective? Were teams better or worse from a goal-scoring perspective with the player in question on the ice? For Mathieu Perreault, mostly better. For Dave Bolland, mostly worse. For Nate Thompson, always worse. To recap, Mathieu Perreault (a) is a better scorer; (b) has established ability to generate offense from dangerous scoring areas; (c) is a very good, perhaps elite possession driver; (d) an underrated defensive player, in some capacity; and (e) consistently improves his team from a goal-scoring aspect. One wonders how a player of this skill set can slip through the cracks, though one fears the bad answer to that question is ‘because he has a small frame’. Anaheim’s okay with the current duo of Getzlaf/Kesler down the middle, but you have to wonder how much better they would be with a player of Perreault’s skill set in tomorrow’s lineup. I think Florida should seriously be questioning how they spent $18.5-million more than Winnipeg and ended up with a significantly inferior player. As for Winnipeg, they obviously received a bargain and it’s one of a few reasons why they’re returning to the playoffs this season. Mathieu Debuchy Jersey . Catch all the action on TSN starting at 10:30pm et/7:30pm pt. Toronto won at Denver and Utah, but lost in Portland and Sacramento. The Kings loss was the most recent game for the Raptors. Arsenal Jerseys .com) - The Columbus Blue Jackets rewarded starting goaltender and pending restricted free agent Sergei Bobrovsky with a four-year contract extension on Friday. http://www.arsenalsoccerproshop.com/Auth...Arsenal-Jersey/. Philbin said Thursday he wants players to treat one another with civility and he wont tolerate anything less. In taking questions for the first time since Ted Wells released his report into the bullying scandal that rocked the league, Philbin made it clear things would be cleaned up. David Ospina Jersey . Canada wasnt in the game from the outset. Head coach Dan Church left Calgary in the morning without addressing the players. He told The Canadian Press he felt the organization lacked confidence in his ability to defend the Olympic gold medal in February. Rob Holding Jersey . - Maynor Figueroa headed in a late goal to give Honduras a 1-1 draw with the United States in an international friendly Tuesday.TORONTO – While the future face of the Maple Leafs was being introduced beside Gate 5 of the Air Canada Centre on Monday morning, the head coach of the hockey club was busy conducting exit interviews for perhaps the final time in Toronto. One player – a young defenceman, almost certain to be 23-year-old Jake Gardiner based on the clues – entered the office of Randy Carlyle and expressed frustration with the constraints he felt from the coaching staff early in the season. Carlyle was admittedly shocked by the revelation, especially taken aback by who this player compared himself with in the league. "Theres some surprising things that come back from players, something youd never imagine," Carlyle said on Tuesday afternoon, his future as the Leafs head coach on the most uncertain of terms at the outset of another disappointing offseason in Toronto. It was one more (and perhaps final) source of befuddlement for a coach still in search of answers following a season that unraveled in rapid and stinging fashion. In less than a month, his team went from chasing home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs to 12th in the East and an eighth absence from the playoffs in the past nine seasons. "We never really created an identity for our hockey club this year," he said, worn down after missing the postseason for just the second time in his NHL coaching career. "We didnt play to an identity and thats what was disturbing because we had been a competitive group in the year previous. We felt that this group going forward was ready to take the next step and a lot of people felt the same way and it didnt materialize." Carlyles imagined idea of Maple Leaf hockey was realized only in the most fleeting of moments, never consistently, be it from shift to shift, period to period, or game to game. He pushed and prodded for a team that was difficult to play against, that defended with vigour and attitude, that slugged it out for extended periods in the offensive zone (Toronto was amongst the worst possession teams in the league) and he rarely got it. Dave Bolland and David Clarkson were supposed to help establish that brand – replacing Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur and Leo Komarov amongst others – but with Bollands long-term injury and Clarksons year-long struggle, the club actually felt off rather dramatically in terms of the identity and attitude it had established in 48 games last season. The drop-off from Grabovski to replacements for Bolland (and Tyler Bozak thereafter) was considerable as was the dip from MacArthur and Komarov to Clarkson. Those offseason changes, made by Dave Nonis, were seemingly made with the brand of the head coach in mind. Carlyle banged the drum loudly all year for what needed to change – even as the group piled up wins in early October and in parts beyond – but could never figure out how to make it stick, his brand of hockey rarely aligning with a group that was equally hard-headed and ultimately unfit to play such a style or system consistently. "We spent a lot of time and effoort on trying to create, sell, visualize what it means to be a Toronto Maple Leaf," he said.dddddddddddd"For this year we were not able to create that. Those are the things that youre going to scratch your head and bang your head against the wall Why didnt it happen? Why didnt it happen? And thats what were all asking ourselves: Why didnt it happen? Because we had it the previous shortened season, the lockout season. We were a hard team to play against." But in the lockout year of 2013, the Leafs had a superb penalty kill, a top-10 offence and strong goaltending, elements that glossed over some of the instabilities that became quickly apparent in the 2013-14 campaign that followed. Despite woeful defensive play, they made it to March in good shape on the strength of a top-five power-play, a dominant top line and superb goaltending from Jonathan Bernier. Once those elements quieted some, the house of cards collapsed – Carlyle said they lost their "mojo" following a successful swing through California. (Over-using the likes of Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk down the stretch, with nothing suitable on the fourth line for support, surely didnt help matters.) Replacing the high-risk, high-reward Ron Wilson, Carlyle was supposed to dramatically alter the course of the Leafs upon his arrival in March 2012, both in terms of structure and style. He was supposed to be the elixir, especially, for how they defended, but in 2013-14, Carlyles Leafs were actually worse in keeping the puck out of the net than in Wilsons final full season behind the bench. No team in the league gave up as many shots as the squad in Toronto – 856 more in fact than the NHLs best in New Jersey – forcing the goaltending to be better than average most nights for two points. Carlyle trumpeted the struggle as a matter of compete – part of the problem certainly – obfuscating of course his inability to affect change where it was once promised he would. "Were not asking the players to do something that they havent done before or wouldnt have done in another situation – be it junior hockey or American Hockey League," Carlyle. "You have to play and you have to compete on the defensive side of the puck with will and commitment and we did not want to do that on a day-to-day basis and thats what our struggles were." His status for next season remains uncertain at best. Neither new president, Brendan Shanahan, nor his second in command Dave Nonis would say if Carlyle would be back, preferring to thoroughly assess the group first in the days ahead. "Im here today," Carlyle said. But he was still searching for answers... "If you think you have all the answers youre in the wrong business," he concluded. "Theres things that you know youd like to do differently as a staff, as a person, as an individual. Theres certain ways you deal with certain things. Theres points that you felt shouldve been a lot stronger on or you shouldve been softer on. Theres all those things. Youre going to question yourself all the time." 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